Evaluator NTG Recommendations for 2021

SAG holds annual teleconference meetings to review recommended Net-to-Gross (NTG) values prepared by independent evaluators and reach agreement on NTG values for the next program year, as described in the Illinois Energy Efficiency Policy Manual. SAG NTG discussions for the program year beginning on January 1, 2021 will be held by teleconference in September 2020:

See below for additional information about this process, including evaluator NTG recommendations. Draft NTG research results are posted below. Final NTG research memos can be found on the Final NTG Research Memos page.

Background and Process

  • Background
    • Net-to-Gross (NTG) Ratio [also referred to as a NTG value] means a factor representing net savings divided by gross savings that is applied to gross impacts to convert them into net impacts. The factor itself may be made up of a variety of factors that create differences between gross and net savings, commonly including Free Riders and Spillover. The factor can be estimated and applied separately to either energy or demand savings.
    • Net-to-Gross Values are produced annually by the independent evaluators, reviewed by stakeholders, and finalized by October 1 of each year. New Net-to-Gross values are prospectively effective January 1, three (3) months after they are finalized.
    • In developing the evaluators’ final recommended deemed NTG ratios, evaluators shall review SAG feedback, take into account all comments and discussions, with the intent of making their best estimate of future actual NTG ratio values for the upcoming Program Year.
    • Please note the following excerpted policy on consensus: If the SAG cannot reach consensus on an appropriate NTG Ratio value to deem for the upcoming Program Year prior to October 1, then the Evaluators’ final recommended deemed NTG Ratio shall be deemed.
    • See below for policy language excerpted from Policy Manual Version 2.0.
  • Process
    • Utility evaluators will prepare initial NTG recommendations by Tuesday, September 1. Recommendations will be posted on this page and circulated to SAG for review.
    • Draft NTG research results will be posted on this page. Final NTG research findings from previous years are available on the NTG Research Memos page.
    • NTG values will be finalized by Thursday, October 1

Follow-up to NTG Meeting #4 (Sept. 25, 2020)

Updated Materials for NTG Meeting #4 (Sept. 25, 2020)

Materials for NTG Meeting #3 (Sept. 18, 2020)

Follow-up to NTG Meeting #3:

NTG Meeting #2 (Sept. 11, 2020)

Follow-up to NTG Meeting #2:

NTG Meeting #1 (Sept. 3, 2020)

Follow-up to NTG Meeting #1:

Initial Evaluator NTG Recommendations (September 1, 2020)

Draft Net-to-Gross Research Results

Comment Process

If you are interested in providing comments on draft NTG research, please send to the following:

Net-to-Gross Policy

See Policy Manual Version 2.0, Section 7.2 (Net-to-Gross Policy):

Adoption of the NTG Policy will become effective for the first Program Year in the Energy Efficiency Plan whose implementation commences January 1, 2018 and annually thereafter. The NTG Policy described herein applies to Section 8-103B and 8-104 Programs. Exception: For the first Program Year whose implementation commences January 1, 2018, the Evaluators’ final deemed NTG Ratio values shall be provided by May 30, 2017.

Evaluators’ initial recommended deemed NTG Ratios for the upcoming Program Year and associated rationale shall be submitted to Program Administrators, Commission Staff and the SAG by September 1 of each year. Evaluators shall follow a consistent format that includes consistent information. In early September of each year, Evaluators will present their initial recommended deemed NTG Ratios for each Energy Efficiency Program, Sub-Program, and/or Measure group (where applicable) to SAG, intended to represent their best estimates of future actual NTG Ratio values likely to occur for the upcoming Program Year. The purpose of this meeting will be for the Evaluators to present their rationale for each NTG Ratio value and provide the SAG, in their advisory role, with an opportunity to question, challenge and suggest modifications to the Evaluators’ initial recommended deemed NTG Ratios for the upcoming Program Year.

SAG participants, including Evaluators, shall make best efforts to reach consensus regarding NTG Ratios appropriate for deeming for the upcoming Program Year that are representative of the best estimates of future actual NTG Ratio values likely to occur for the upcoming Program Year. If the SAG reaches consensus regarding an appropriate NTG Ratio to deem prior to October 1, then SAG’s consensus NTG Ratio shall be deemed for the upcoming Program Year, even if it is different from the Evaluators’ initial recommended deemed NTG Ratio. If the SAG cannot reach consensus on an appropriate NTG Ratio value to deem for the upcoming Program Year prior to October 1, then the Evaluators’ final recommended deemed NTG Ratio shall be deemed, which may be different from the Evaluators’ initial recommended deemed NTG Ratio. In developing the Evaluators’ final recommended deemed NTG Ratio, Evaluators shall review SAG feedback, take into account all comments and discussions, with the intent of making their best estimate of future actual NTG Ratio values for the upcoming Program Year. Evaluators shall report final deemed NTG values on or before October 1.

In general, for Income Eligible Programs, the NTG Ratio is deemed at 1.0. In the event Illinois NTG Income Eligible evaluation research leads the Evaluators and stakeholders to believe the best estimate of the future actual NTG Ratio for an Income Eligible Program is significantly different than 1.0 for the applicable Program Year, for that utility, then the final deemed NTG Ratio for the Income Eligible Program may differ from 1.0. While there may be reasons why Income Eligible NTG evaluation research for one Program Administrator may not be applicable to another Program Administrator in Illinois, there are situations where such research may be applicable. Evaluators will make recommendations as part of the annual NTG process on the applicability of such research for the applicable Program Year.

In the event a new Energy Efficiency pilot Program, Sub-Program, Measure group, and/or special project arises after October 1, Evaluators will supply recommended deemed NTG Ratios as soon as practical, which may be based on secondary research, when that research produces relevant results, and that are intended to represent the Evaluators’ best estimates of actual NTG Ratio values likely to occur for the relevant Program Year. Otherwise a NTG Ratio of 0.80 will be deemed. Evaluators may seek feedback from SAG regarding an appropriate NTG Ratio to deem for the new Energy Efficiency pilot Program, Sub-Program, and/or Measure group. For special projects, Evaluators may determine a project-specific NTG Ratio upfront and deem the project specific NTG Ratio for the life of the project. 

Net-to-Gross Ratio for Income Eligible Programs

See Policy Manual Version 2.0, Section 7.3 (NTG Ratio for Income Eligible Programs):

There has been general consensus among Illinois stakeholders that the NTG Ratio for most Income Eligible Programs is not likely to be significantly different from 1.0, particularly where the person making the participation decision is the Low Income Customer. Therefore, Evaluators will not perform NTG research for Income Eligible Programs unless the SAG and Income Qualified Advisory Committees consensus concludes that there is value in performing the NTG research. If Evaluators propose NTG research for Income Eligible Programs, discussions will be held with SAG participants on the value in and methods for performing such research and the timing of the application of such research.